September 28, 2006

Network War, Tumitindi!

The network wars continue to rage! This time around, and as always since its ascent to the top spot in Metro Manila, GMA7 is doing its best to block the resurgent Kapamilya network. But it seems that GMA7 is mudslinging some dirts and accusations towards the ABS-CBN camp. I've been noticing this trend of finger pointing at crucial times when ratings of Kapuso shows are getting wallopped and/or its lead decreases.

Over at INQ7.net, celebrity columnist Dolly Ann Carvajal wrote this piece a few days ago:

LOOKING at the Mega Manila ratings data, it is surprising to see the unusually big difference between the non-cable and cable households' ratings figures. And if one gives a much closer look, the ratings results are definitely more than surprising – to a point that it is already becoming a little suspicious.

Just look at GMA's Eat Bulaga and 24 Oras. Given its status as being the institution in the noontime genre, Eat Bulaga is expectedly getting a high 28.2 rating points among non-cable households. However, its relatively low 16.4 among cable households – particularly among Sky and Home cable subscribers, is definitely mind-boggling.

As for 24 Oras, it posted a strong 33.9 rating points among non-cable households but a dubious 18.3 rating points among cable households.

Quite the opposite, however, is what's happening over at the Kapamilya Network.

Thanks to the cable ratings – primarily to both Sky and Home Cable subscribers, ABS-CBN is seemingly able to catch up on GMA's lead in the ratings. Incidentally, ABS-CBN, just like both Sky and Home Cable, belongs to the Lopezes – true Kapamilya(s) indeed. Could that explain the cable – non-cable discrepancy? Just asking.

It was also Ms. Carvajal who floated the idea that the surveys conducted in the provincial areas are dubious. She is questioning the results and the credibility of the organizations or firms conducting the survey--even insinuating further that the results are biased to ABS-CBN. Looking again at the latest article of Ms. Carvajal, I am not wondering anymore if she's written what she'd written above.

For starters, let's stop the crap from being written. Once and for all, this tactic of GMA7 of feeding its "paid" reporters with smear campaigns to attack ABS-CBN must stop! It is not doing any good to the Kapuso network. It only shows its insecurities, at ang kanilang pagiging gahaman to be on top at all cost. They should be happy that they've clinched the top spot for more than two years already, but why resort to something negative. Can't they sustain their leadership without the smear campaigns?

GMA7 must face the fact that it cannot compete with ABS-CBN in the provinces. Even GMA7's claim that they're the top network in Iloilo City is short-lived. If GMA7 owns the crown in Metro Manila, it should be contented to be a very distant second in all other areas of the Philippines.

What is exciting lately is the fact that ABS-CBN is mounting a strategy that might overcome the powers of GMA7 in Metro Manila. The Kapamilya Network's strategy is rather simple: Divide and Conquer. First, they set their sights on the most lucrative time period which is Primetime (6:00 PM to 11:00 PM). Remember that on this time period a few months back (or even a year ago), GMA7 has a tight leash of the ratings crown for this block with Mulawin, Darna, Sugo, Encantadia, Starstruck, its trailblazing Extra Challenge and its ultra successful Koreanovelas, specifically Jewel in the Palace. Their ratings ranges the top 30's and the low 40's. Jewel in the Palace ranges the mid 30's, which is incredible considering that it enters the tube at around 10:00 PM already, and not a lot of people are awake during this time. For ABS-CBN during these times, their offerings are underperforming in the ratings game.

Back to the present: ABS-CBN has instituted a bold move of putting up a Late Night News Show in replacement of its not-so-funny and ill-conceived comedy shows. Maala-ala is transferred to Fridays with good results. At its earlier timeslot opposite Magpakailanman, Maala-ala can only manage the low 10's against Magpakailanman's high 10's. On it's Friday slot, Maala-ala reigns supreme with low- to mid- 20's in the ratings. If before, the jaded Jewel in the Palace can muster the 30's (and mid- to high 30's at that), Love Story in Harvard can only accomplish the low 20's opposite either Crazy for You or Maala-ala. Crazy for You is now in the race for the timeslot opposite Love Story in Harvard. Every now and then, the ratings are in seesaw hovering around the low- to mid- 20's. GMA7 is not in the good running for the overall ratings crown if it cannot find a hit in this timeslot anytime soon.

Let's go back to Bandila, the late night news show placed by ABS-CBN on the timeslot of the old comedy and entertainment block after Primetime Bida. Understandably, it was wallopped by such heavyweights as Nuts Entertainment, Bubble Gang, Lagot Ka and other KiliTV hits of Kapuso. Recently though, ABS-CBN managed to move the news show a little bit later, and squeezing before it Pinoy Dream Academy to good results for the Kapamilya Network. Imagine, Pinoy Dream Academy mustering mid- to high- 10's in the ratings helping Bandila conquer the timeslot against the once formidable KiliTV block. If before, GMA7 is a sure winner on this timeslot, ABS-CBN is slowly snatching viewers away from GMA7 (and this is not a good sign for GMA7!). This timeslot is not a lock anymore for the Kapuso Network.

Now, consider the timeslot before TV Patrol World. A few weeks back, it was occupied by Calla Lily. When Calla Lily gave its counterpart Koreanovela show a heart attack, the Koreanovela show was cancelled within a week of showing and was replaced by a re-run of Jewel in the Palace to spectacular ratings (though only managing mid- to high- 10's as compared to its mid- to high- 30's in the Telebabad Block timeslot). Not to be outdone, ABS-CBN did not take things easily. It placed on this timeslot the ever popular Pangako Sa 'Yo opposite Jewel in the Palace. Now, the timeslot is in the seesaw. Again, this is disadvantageous to GMA7 which normally locks this timeslot with audience favorites through the years.

TV Patrol has lost its shine when new anchors replaced the formidable Noli de Castro and Korina Sanchez. 24 Oras on the other hand has the power duo of Mel Tiangco and Mike Enriquez. But lately, TV Patrol is closing the gap between its rival show. If 24 Oras' lead before over TV Patrol is 10-12 ratings-point (which is a lot!), now it's lead has shrunk to only 5-8 ratings-point (which I should point out is still a lot!). But the fact remains that TV Patrol is not content in settling for the second spot.

Captain Barbell and Majika (and expectedly Atlantika) are sure fire hits, no doubt about this! On the other hand, Kapamilya Deal or No Deal (KDOND) and Super Inggo are experimental in nature. The former is pitted against the formidable Captain Barbell, while the later is pitted against Majika (and next week to Atlantika). When KDOND was launched the middle of this year, it attained a rating of 26% against the high 30's of its competition. Immediately, GMA7 spinned that the show will be shortlived because of its paltry ratings. Everything changed after a few weeks when KDOND got its tempo in the ratings game. Lately, the game show hosted by the ever-reliable Kris Aquino is waging a toe-to-toe war in the timeslot. As of last Monday, Captain Barbell only leads KDOND with a not-so-impressive lead of 1%. Money-wise, Captain Barbell will lose money if it continues to show this not-so-impressive ratings against KDOND. Captain Barbell entails more expenses than KDOND considering that the former has more talents and production costs to consider whereas the later only needs to pay Kris Aquino (and th 26K Girls).

Majika's ratings is on a roller coaster trend. Sometimes the show has strong ratings in the high 30's, but lately since the introduction of Bituing Walang Ningning (BWN) and Super Inggo, Majika starts to show weakness. On its head-to-head competition with BWN, Majika mustered the low- to mid- 30's while BWN competes with the low- 30's. Genre-wise, Majika is expected to pull higher ratings because its target market skews the younger audience. But sadly, this is not happening. On the contrary, BWN has provided Majika with mind-boggling competition on this timeslot, even wallopping Majika a couple of times during its run. When Super Inggo was slated on this timeslot, it started with anemic ratings against Majika, lately, Majika leads Super Inggo with less than 1%. With a margin of error greater than 3%, the lead of Majika is negligible. Another timeslot to worry for GMA7. With the entry of Atlantika next week, let's wait and see if this timeslot can be recovered by GMA7.

When I Luv NY was launched by GMA7, it got off solidly. Many pundits thought I Luv NY will be a ratings sinker, but it has proven the pundits wrong. But as time progressed, its ratings continued to slide. From its high 30's during its launching, it ended somewhere in the high-20's and low 30's. Over at ABS-CBN, Sa Piling Mo was impressive. This is understandable because of the popularity of Judy Ann Santos and Piolo Pascual. During its stay in the tube, Sa Piling Mo averaged the low- to mid- 30's. Now that both shows had already closed, the timeslot is occupied with Bakekang and Bituing Walang Ningning (BWN). When Bakekang was launched a couple of weeks ago, it peaked at the mid- 30's, similar to the launching numbers of I Luv NY. Lately, Bakekang's ratings opposite BWN hovers the low- 30's. BWN on the other hand started off to weak ratings in the mid- to high- 20's in the timeslot opposite Majika. But then again as time progressed and its pacing became fast and exciting, it inched closer to the ratings of Majika, then when it transferred, to the ratings of Bakekang. Now on its last two weeks, expect to see fireworks in the ratings of BWN. As for the replacement of BWN when it ends in October, ABS-CBN is cooking up another sineserye--Maging Sino Ka Man, topbilled by John Lloyd Cruz and Bea Alonzo, Sam Milby and Anne Curtis. Wherever this sineserye will be placed (especially against Bakekang), the quadro-combo of Maging Sino Ka Man is an expected ratings goldmine for the Kapamilya Network.

So for the Primetime Block of both GMA7 and ABS-CBN, and by looking at the trend explained above, one can deduce without bias that ABS-CBN has gained significant 'catch-up' with the front-runner in the Metro Manila area. If GMA7 cannot achieve the glory days of its ratings domination it showed the last two years once again soon, ABS-CBN is positioning a comeback that will definitely leave GMA7 in the limbo.

Since we are at it, let me also point out the drastic strategies that ABS-CBN has employed during the two years that it got beaten by the competition. First: it instituted cost-cutting measures that is truly paying off right now. Secondly, ABS-CBN is capitalizing on its strengths--drama, the youth and money. In the drama department, it has rolled such hits as Sa Piling Mo, Gulong ng Palad, Bituing Walang Ningning and others. The youth is captured by ABS-CBN through its love teams that are truly followed by the viewers and the audience. With handful of money at its disposal, ABS-CBN has partnered with such organizations as Endemol to give shows that are truly international hits such as Pinoy Big Brother, Deal or No Deal and Pinoy Dream Academy.

On the other side of the fence, GMA7 is repeating the same failures that ABS-CBN made during its supremacy in national television. It is hoarding talents that will in the long run strain the company. Take for instance the hefty sums dangled by GMA7 to lure the top celebrities of ABS-CBN. Yes, GMA7 earns from these celebrities because it can offer them shows, but there is always a limit to how many shows you can do at any given time. Maximizing the potential of the high-paid celebrities cannot be done if there is abundant supply of talents and only limited demand from shows. Again, in the long run, GMA7 is required to pay these talents' fees even if these talents do not have shows with them just to be sure that they will not jump the ship.

The Primetime Block is not the only time period that is shaky for GMA7. While Eat Bulaga remains very strong in the Noon-Prime Block, there is significant improvement on the part of ABS-CBN for this timeslot with its two-punch combo of Game Ka Na Ba and Wowowee. Eat Bulaga averages the low- to mid- 20's daily, and climbing to the high- 20's during Saturdays. The power duo of the Kapamilya Network is averaging the high- 10's. On the weekend, the two shows can hit the low 20's. This is a tremendous improvement over those shows placed on this timeslot before such as MTB. The pre-Noon-Prime Block is a see-saw between the two stations, especially between HomeBoy and SIS. There are times when SIS is ahead of HomeBoy, and there are times when HomeBoy is ahead of SIS. If averaged, this timeslot is always a photo-finish race for both shows. The shows following either SIS and HomeBoys are both Koreanovelas. GMA7 has the upper-hand on this timeslot because its canned Koreanovela show is always on top averaging the high- 10's compared to the low- 10's of the Kapamilya Network. But things will definitely change here because next week, Game Ka Na Ba will eat up this timeslot, thus removing the Koreanovel show from the equation, and making drastic changes into the Pre-Noon-Prime and Noon-Prime Block, merging both blocks into one. Movers and shakers either win or lose... my guts tell me that ABS-CBN will significantly improve on this merged block in the days ahead.

The Morning Block is solidly under the grip of ABS-CBN with shows that have stood the test of times. Although sometimes, GMA7 can manage some wins on this time period. The afternoon Block on the other hand is solidly under GMA7, with reliable soaps like Daisy Siete, Pinakamamahal and Now and Forever. But the stable of Kapamilya shows on this time block are steadily gaining patronage. Kapamilya Cinema is hitting high notes lately averaging the mid- to high- 10's compared to the single digits or low- 10's a few months back. The cheaply-made soaps over at GMA7 are experiencing slumps lately. Daisy Siete now on its nth season, is down from its hefty low- 20's to just the mid- 10's lately. Pinakamamahal and Now and Forever are down from its mid- to high- 10's to just the low- 10's lately. Pasion de Amor, which I thought no one ever watch anymore is back in fighting form. It has just given GMA7 a blow when it cancelled on this timeslot the over-hyped alternative to Extra Challenge, Ang Pagbabago. Now, Pasion de Amor is up against its competitors with mid- to high- 10's ratings compared to the low- to mid- 10's ratings of the Kapuso Network.

The Weekend Block Crown is also up for grabs between the two networks, with GMA7 securing the title on Saturdays, and ABS-CBN securing the title on Sundays. The Saturday afternoon block of GMA7 is promising with the combo of Eat Bulaga, Startalk and Wish Ko Lang. On the other hand, specifically Nagmamahal Kapamilya and Let's Go are distant seconds on its timeslot. Lately, with the introduction of Star Magic Presents, ABS-CBN is providing new blood and energy for the Saturday afternoon block. The Saturday night time period for ABS-CBN is promising. Gone are the days when GMA7 with its Bitoy's Funniest, Pinoy Pop Superstar, Kapuso Mo Jessica Soho, Imbestigador is averaging the low- to mid- 30's for most of the four shows. Now, with the resurgent programming of ABS-CBN on this time period spanning four timeslots with John en Shirley, TV Patrol, XXX and Pinoy Dream Academy, GMA7 can only manage the low- to mid- 20's. ABS-CBN has almost matched its GMA7 counterpart with high- 10's to low- 20's ratings. There are even times when both networks are neck-to-neck during these four timeslots. The match-up of Fantastikids and Komiks always go Komiks with a lead ranging from 3% to 6%. The powers of Fantastikids cannot compete with the supremacy of Komiks on this timeslot. GMA7 must think of something better on this timeslot before its Saturday title goes to ABS-CBN on the backs of strong performance from Komiks. Hokus Pokus is dominant on its timeslot after Imbestigador the past few months. But with the inclusion of Aalog-alog in the picture, things got interesting with the lead of Hokus Pokus dwindling to just a rating point, which is to any statistician, an uncomfortable lead to boot!

Sundays belong to ABS-CBN with power pack of ASAP, Your Song, Love Spell, The Buzz, Goin' Bulilit, TV Patrol, Ratek K, Sharon and Pinoy Dream Academy. Although there are times when the ratings go haywire, at the end of the day, when the dust settles, the power pack of ABS-CBN emerges as the winner. This has not been the case in the past when GMA7 lorded this day with its power pack of its own: SOP, SOP Gigster, Love to Love, S-Files, Mahiwagang Baul, Pinoy Meets World, Mel and Joey, All Star K and Daddy Di Do Du.

Again, even without a degree in Mathematics, and by just analyzing the facts, the trend is with ABS-CBN this time around. Could this mean a rebound for ABS-CBN, and the untimely demise for GMA7 as the top network in Metro Manila? We can only wait and see for the next events to happen!

As to the allegations of 'cheating' on the ratings in cabled homes, I do not have the authority to acknowledge or deny if indeed this is happening. In case it does really happen, then ABS-CBN is not fair in playing the ratings game, and it should be penalized, pronto! (as to how it should be penalized, I'm not sure how <grin>) But just for discussion purposes, let us consider this: Who are the people who can afford to have a cable installed in their homes? These people must be at least middle-class or high-earners for them to support the hefty P600 monthly bill for cable TV. So it is safe to assume that class A, B and upper C are the people who can afford cable TV. These are the same people who have the most purchasing power, and the sectors of society that is being targeted by ABS-CBN by its show and marketing. If this is the case, why should GMA7 be surprised if ABS-CBN got higher ratings from cabled homes when the later (ABS-CBN) is doing one hell of a job just to get these sectors to get hooked to the Kapamilya Network. On the other hand, did ABS-CBN question why GMA7 got higher ratings in non-cabled homes? Absolutely not, because ABS-CBN understood that this is primarily the market that GMA7 is running after, after all, this is where the most number of Filipinos belongs--to the lower C, D and E sectors of society.

Talk About the Ratings... Laos na ba ang ABS-CBN? Nanganganib na ba ang GMA 7?:
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