October 14, 2006

Cable Ratings vs. Free TV Ratings

It's been a while since my last commentary about the current television ratings. The reasons: 1) Milenyo and 2) Because I was in Manila, Still Devastated by Milenyo.

And it is also Milenyo and after the said typhoon that the television landscape in terms of who leads when and what shows changed a bit, in terms of ratings.

Immediately after Milenyo, everyone in the media world took notice of something unusual happening in the television scene in terms of people watching TV shows of both ABS-CBN and GMA7. This leads to some quarter, especially from the GMA7 side (which was greatly affected by the 'phenomenon'). The phenomenon is illustrated this way: most of GMA7 shows from morning til primetime til late night got lower-than-usual-ratings (a drop of more than 10% points for some shows), while ABS-CBN shows never changed its ratings compared week-per-week or even month-per-month.

The spin doctors at GMA7 started to feed its foot soldiers (e.g. paid reporters) with information that will dispel and explain the matter so that it will make them appear cheated by ABS-CBN. Then the ever-reliable scapegoat of GMA7 when its ratings dip surfaced: the reason for the decline of GMA7's ratings is because the 'cable ratings' of ABS-CBN held ground despite Milenyo, while GMA7's ratings, especially in its turf--the free TV ratings dipped significantly.

As I browse and read reports from reporters that are known to be GMA7 allies, they are united in saying and are all in disbelief as to why ABS-CBN's cable ratings did not change compared to GMA7's and that of its free TV ratings. This along with other questions, we will all try to decipher. I will say my piece, and I encourage everyone to post their own, either from the comments link below or its blog, if any.

ISSUE #1: Why ABS-CBN's cable ratings held up and never changed despite Milenyo? And why GMA7 is lagging behind ABS-CBN bigtime in the cable ratings?

The facts: 1) ABS-CBN's cable ratings during Milenyo dropped significantly from its week-per-week and month-per-month comparison. GMA7's cable ratings also dropped significantly vis-a-vis its normal cable ratings 2) ABS-CBN's cable ratings immediately after Milenyo returned to normalcy, that is to its usual dominant ratings against GMA7 3) At the same time, GMA7's cable ratings continued to slide from its week-per-week and month-per-month comparisons.

Now, whoever is claiming that even during Milenyo ABS-CBN's ratings held constantly is telling a lie. The truth of the matter is: even GMA7 did not refute the tabulated ratings of the day. On the succeeding days after Milenyo, as the power from Meralco is being restored to full capacity, the ratings of ABS-CBN stabilized to its normal cable ratings against GMA7. ABS-CBN is leading GMA7 in the cable ratings with double digit lead before Milenyo, and after Milenyo. And lastly, GMA7's cable ratings continue to show weakness as evidenced by its continued slide. This slide did not happen overnight, mind you. The dwindling of TV viewers from cable television subscribers has been happening over the past months. This is understandable because the hits that GMA7 is producing during its heydey in 2004-2005 were not replicated anymore during the current year.

It should be noted that this slide is not only happening on cable ratings. Over the past months, the same slide is being experienced by GMA7 from its Free TV ratings. On the other hand, shows of ABS-CBN has improved slightly or remained the same.

ISSUE #2: One columnist asked this question: Why will subscribers of cable choose to watch ABS-CBN when it is offered free on 'Free TV'?

The question arose from the columnist's awe after comparing the discrepancy between cable ratings of ABS-CBN and GMA7. The columnist argued that the main reason why a person or a family chooses to have cable television installed is for that person or family to see shows not offered in Free TV. While this opinion may be true to some quarters of cable television subscribers, this does not hold true to all cable subscribers.

I know of a lot of people (this writer included) where they choose to have cable television installed in their homes, and still opting to see ABS-CBN for the main reason that in Free TV the reception of ABS-CBN is scrappy. So the main reason for subscribing to cable TV is to see ABS-CBN shows (and to a lesser extent GMA7 shows) in crystal-clear clarity.

Now that option cannot be questioned by the columnist because it is a matter of choice. If you have the money and you can afford to have cable television installed in your home, then so be it. Regardless of the fact that these viewers only watch shows from ABS-CBN or GMA7 is their right and choice. Nobody can dictate anyone to choose GMA7 shows over ABS-CBN shows!

ISSUE #3: Looking at the cable ratings and free TV ratings, what can be deduced from it in terms of the demographics of viewers glued to ABS-CBN and GMA7?

And this is a very crucial point to discuss, especially since this is where everything matters. As an overview, in the US, it doesn't matter if you are the most-watched network in terms of the number of viewers. What matters most is if you are the most watched in the demographic coveted by advertisers, the 18-49 age bracket. CBS, in the US maybe the most watched broadcast network, but it is Fox and ABC who are getting the bigger chunk of advertisements that are mind-boggling because these are the two networks that bring in the most of the 18-49 age bracket group.

Applying this matter here in the Philippines is very simple (although no fact will back this up since the television ratings surveys conducted in the Philippine do not aggregate television viewers in terms of age brackets like the one being used in the US). The method that can easily be used: cable television viewers vs. free television viewers. Who are the people most likely to have cable television--those who are willing to pay monthly subscription fees? Who are the people most likely not to have cable television installed in their homes? On the first question, it's generally those who have the money to have cable television installed. The key world here: generally those with money, which can be interpolated further to be those people in the A, B, C+ socio-economic brackets of the society. For the second question, those normally in the C-, D and E socio-economic brackets of society. Again, these assumptions may not be very accurate, and some deviations are expected, but this is based on general terms. Some exceptions may happen, but these are compensated by some exceptions on the other side of the aisle.

If the ratings are saying that ABS-CBN is lording over GMA7 in cable ratings, does this mean that ABS-CBN is favored by the A, B and C+ markets? That is most probably correct as indicated by the high ratings of ABS-CBN vs. GMA7 in cable ratings. Does this mean that GMA7 is most favored by the C-, D and E markets (the so-called masa)? That seems to be the case, too, with GMA7 lording over ABS-CBN in the free television ratings. But to the advertiser's frame of mind (just like in the US), which would they choose, ABS-CBN favored by people that have the capacity to buy those being advertised or GMA7 favored by the masa who don't have the capacity to buy the products being advertised? You take your pick...

And this theory of mine has been supported by Milenyo. When Milenyo struck Manila, obviously the cable ratings and free television ratings dropped. The moment power is restored in exclusive villages to business districts to middle class abodes, ABS-CBN cable ratings stabilized as an effect. A few days later, when power was restored in far flung areas of the metropolis and masa-dominated areas, GMA7 free television ratings stabilized as an effect.

As my footnote on this matter, nothing is so shocking by the findings presented above. Only those who are willing to accept the fact that a wheel is round will be able to surmount the possibility that ABS-CBN is rising while GMA7 is on the downside. Unless of course if GMA7 will drastically do something to prevent this from happening. Yon lang po! Til my next commentary.

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